Every contract on prediction market sites ends with a resolution process. This step changes event outcomes into payouts. The process decides if traders get paid after the event ends. Most markets close without any disputes. They settle in a few hours. Over 95% of contracts clear at sites worldwide. For more details, see https://predictionsunited.com/. It explains the resolution systems used on sites.
What Is Market Resolution
Resolution starts after an event ends and the platform gets the result. Then, the market closes. The system pays out to positions.
Once resolution begins, traders can’t change their positions.
The group in charge of resolution depends on the site. Some sites use teams of people. Others use votes.
Three Resolution Models That Close Contracts
Most best prediction market sites use one of three resolution models.
The following list shows which model each major site uses:
- Kalshi uses teams;
- Polymarket uses oracles;
- Robinhood uses operations;
- Augur uses voting;
- Betfair uses oversight.
How Centralized Teams Settle Outcomes
In this model, a team makes all resolution decisions.
CFTC rules say each venue must have one party in charge. This creates a chain of responsibility.
Resolutions finish within 24 hours.
How Decentralized Oracles Process Results
Decentralized oracles let token holders decide how to resolve outcomes. Once an event ends, any user can submit the result. To do this, the proposer puts up a bond that supports their claim. After this, a challenge window starts.
Other token holders can challenge the proposal by posting their own bond. If no one challenges, the proposal stands. But if someone disputes it, the network runs a vote among token holders.
UMA uses this same process for Polymarket. If a proposer gets it wrong, they lose their bonded tokens. Since 2020, this method has processed thousands of markets.
How Hybrid Systems Combine Both Methods
Hybrid models use data feeds to trigger resolution outcomes. After that, a team or oracle network reviews and may override the result from the feed.
Outcomes resolve based on the data feeds. If needed, cases follow a set escalation path for review.
Some events need judgment to decide the outcome. The override process stops feed errors from becoming final, which protects traders if failures misread the sources.
Which Resolution Sources Determine Final Outcomes
Each contract lists its data sources before trading starts. The resolution team or oracle uses only these sources.
The following model shows which sources each major operator uses:
- Weather uses NOAA station data;
- Politics uses AP election calls;
- Finance uses exchange closing prices;
- Sports uses league scores;
- News uses media reports.
What Happens When Traders Dispute a Result
Disputes move on centralized and decentralized sites. Centralized sites use teams to run dispute resolution. Traders file a complaint and add evidence. This evidence needs to show that the resolution call does not match the outcome or what the contract says.
On Polymarket, to open a dispute on a resolved contract, you must post a $750 USDC bond. The bond must go up during the window, after the first proposal is published. Both sides can submit evidence. UMA token holders look at the dispute and vote through a process.
Most votes end within 48 hours after a dispute starts. The winning side gets the side’s bond as a reward for posting the outcome.
How Long Does Payout Take After Resolution
Most sites pay out within 24 to 48 hours after a market closes. Kalshi uses the same approach. CFTC-regulated venues set contract timelines for payouts.
Polymarket pays in USDC on-chain when resolution ends.
Sports prediction sites tied to operators use a 24-hour payout standard.
Which Risks Can Delay or Change Resolution
Single-source contracts usually have the longest delays when it comes to resolving results on any prediction market site. When a contract uses one data source and doesn’t include a backup, it often gets stuck.
Kalshi has an internal operations team that checks other sources.
Outcomes create another risk for every platform. Disputes have happened before on both centralized and decentralized sites, often involving events or contracts. If a platform lacks a formal dispute process, this risk goes up.
Where Major Sites Differ in Resolution Approach
Kalshi runs every contract settlement through a set process. The CFTC checks that each one follows compliance rules. Inside the company, a team reviews all markets and decides each contract’s outcome.
Polymarket uses the oracle to close markets and settle trades. All settlements use USDC and happen on-chain. During the settlement window, any user can propose or dispute an outcome. You can check transaction records for every payout.
Robinhood Predict includes resolution in its brokerage system and follows US financial regulations. Betfair Exchange follows UK Gambling Commission rules. A team checks outcomes against sources. Augur uses an oracle to close markets.
What Timeline Should You Expect from Start to Payout
The resolution process moves through stages. It begins when the event ends and continues until payout.
The following steps show the standard timeline:
- The event ends.
- The resolution team or oracle checks the source.
- The team then proposes a resolution.
- The challenge window closes.
- After that, the system credits positions.
- Finally, traders can withdraw funds to their accounts.
Conclusion
Resolution decides if a trader gets a payout or takes a loss after an event ends.
Centralized models use one party to apply data to contract rules. Hybrid systems mix centralized and decentralized ideas. Decentralized oracles spread authority to holders, who vote on outcomes if there’s a dispute.
Traders should check the resolution rules and data sources before placing any position.
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